Population Growth in The Dalles is Slowing But More Housing is Still Needed
PSU predicts The Dalles about to see a significant slow down in the rate of population growth.
By Cole Goodwin
The Dalles, Ore., December 11, 2023 – A Housing Needs Analysis presented to The Dalles City Council on Monday, Dec. 11, shows a slow down in the rate of future population growth resulting in the projected need for 505 new housing units in The Dalles by 2043.
The analysis was done by Johnson Economics and MIG and pulls data from the 2020 U.S. Census, American Community Survey, Portland State University Population Center, PSU Population Forecast, Regional Listing Service, third party rental and sales providers, City of The Dalles, Wasco County, the State of Oregon and the Point in Time Count which records data on homelessness.
505 Homes Needed
A screenshot of a slide from the housing needs analysis presentation.
The analysis calls for a 7% increase in housing stock by 2043.
Of the 505 homes needed based on those projections, the study recommends development of 259 single family homes, 43 townhomes, 48 duplex, triplex and quadruplexs, 107 facilities with five or more units, and 48 manufactured homes.
The study indicated a need for a wide range of price points on owner and rental housing.
Currently over 29% of The Dalles households pay more than 30% of income towards housing costs and 27% of renters are spending 50% or more of their income on housing and are considered “severely rent-burdened.”
A graph shows the number of households spending more than 30% of their income on housing costs.
Households with lower incomes tend to spend a higher percentage of their income on housing than households with higher incomes.
The analysis identified 189.5 acres of available zoned residential buildable lands within city limits and 140.7 acres of zoned residential buildable lands outside of city limits.
Concerns Over Low Population Growth Estimates
Concerns arose during the meeting over the methodology used by Portland State University Population Research Center to project population growth and the impact that has on the housing needs analysis.
PSU’s projected annual population growth rate for The Dalles is 0.3%. At that rate the population of The Dalles in 2043 would be 18,589.
Meanwhile, The Dalles has experienced a population growth rate of 0.8%* for the last thirteen years.
*The Dalles has experienced a population growth of 1,750 people since 2010 which is an 11% increase in the population over the past 13 years. That means that from 2010 to 2023 the average annual growth rate of the City was 0.8%. If The Dalles were to grow at a 0.8% growth rate until 2043, the total population of The Dalles would be 19,963 by 2043.
“We’ve never really seen a huge population increase in the City of County, but consistently it’s been nearing 1% for decades. So it’s hard to imagine why it’s 0.3%,” said Scott Hege, Wasco County Commissioner.
The low population estimate could be due to a number of factors.
According to PSU birth rates are projected to fall in Wasco County and death rates are projected to increase as the population grows and ages. Also factored into the estimate is migration. The majority of out migration in Wasco County is amongst younger age groups and the majority of in migration to Wasco County is amongst older working age people. But while Wasco County’s population is projected to increase by some 2.86% until 2040, The Dalles is projected to grow at a much slower rate.
A graph from PSU shows Wasco County’s projected population growth. PSU project’s that Wasco County’s population will grow in the next 30 years before stabilizing.
A graph from PSU shows The Dalles’ projected population changes and housing statistics.
Hege pointed out that such a low projected growth rate could put the City at a disadvantage in terms of accurately planning housing development and land use; as well as undermine justification for expanding the urban growth boundary.
“This document is saying we have tons of land for housing… it kind of infers that we don’t have a housing problem and I don’t think anybody here thinks we don’t have a housing problem,” said Hege.
“I think that this document will in fact inhibit our ability to expand our urban growth boundary,” agreed Mays.
Staff shared that PSU had adopted a new methodology for projecting population growth and that new projection numbers for the City could be available within the next year and a half. Staff noted that waiting for those projections could cost the City more money and inhibit their ability to begin moving forward on production strategy.
Staff also shared that while the Housing Needs Analysis process had required adherence to a strict set of laws and requirements from the state, the production strategy would be more flexible and localized.
“The production strategy is a bit more fluid and can be catered more to the community,” said Josh Chandler, Community Development Director.
Associate Planner, Kaitlynn Cook shared that they had received a technical advisory grant for the housing production strategy.
“We’ll be working on that in February, we’re all pretty excited to get to work on it. I’ve attended multiple trainings on housing production strategies and it is really exciting how the state is helping cities, providing them a toolkit with strategies but also empowering us to make our own tools to really fulfill our specific goals of the city,” said Kaitlynn Cook, Associate Planner of City of The Dalles Community Development Department.
Following the presentation, public comment, and discussion with staff, the City Council voted to adopt Ordinance No. 23-1404, an ordinance amending The Dalles Comprehensive Plan Goal 10 (Housing) and adopting the Housing and Residential Land Needs Assessment and the Buildable Lands Inventory Update, by title only.
Current Housing Conditions: A Look at Population Growth and Current Housing Stock
The population of The Dalles was about 17,552 in 2023*, making it the largest City in Wasco County and 38th largest in the state. The Dalles has experienced an average of 0.8% population growth annually from 2010 to 2023.
*This number represents the number of year round residents calculated by the PSU Population Research Center. Readers may note that the population estimates look different in different places in the housing needs analysis document and in this article. The reason for the differences is due to certain data sets being based on a slightly different variety of factors, including year round residency, location within the city limits, location outside of the city limits, location within the urban growth boundary, population of group households vs non-group households etc.
Household Size
The average household in The Dalles is 2.5 people.
61% of local households are families.
Own or Rent?
The Dalles consists of 62% homeowners and 38% renters.
Renter households are more likely to have a household size of one person. Owner households are more likely to have two or more persons.
Aging Housing
The median age of current housing stock is about 54 years old.
Of the some 6,641 housing units in The Dalles, 1,478 of them were built in 1939 or earlier, making them 83 years or older.
Housing development experienced a boom in The Dalles during the 1950’s. With some 1,090 housing units being built in The Dalles between 1950 and 1959.
However every decade since then shows fewer homes being built each decade.
Between the year 2000 and 2019 approximately 818 new units have been built in The Dalles.
A graph from Point2Homes shows home construction trends in The Dalles, OR.
How Many Rooms Per Unit?
Of the current housing stock 78% of the owned units have 3+ bedrooms and 64% of the rented units have 2 bedrooms or fewer.
Housing Costs
On average, housing costs reach about $1,006 per month in The Dalles.
31% of renters spend 20-29% of their income on rent.
27% of renters are spending 50% or more of their income on housing and are considered “severely rent-burdened.”
Currently over 29% of The Dalles households pay more than 30% of income towards housing costs.
A graph shows the percentage of income spent on rent by The Dalles residents.
The current median home cost in The Dalles sits at around $365,100.
Properties with mortgages account for about 65.89% of the units.
Commuting Patterns
Approximately 3,200 people live and work in the The Dalles while.
4,150 people live in The Dalles and work elsewhere.
4,500 people work in The Dalles and live elsewhere.
Watch the full housing needs analysis presentation by watching the video below or read the housing needs analysis PDF by clicking here (analysis starts on page 92).
