Dumbing Down Data: Shutdown blacks out Oregon Employment Picture
Oregon’s Sept. Employment Rate… who knows? Key indicator missing.
From the Oregon Employment Department with additions by Tom Peterson:
Salem, Ore., Oct. 15, 2025 — A federal government shutdown has left Oregon economists, business owners, and policymakers flying partially blind. With the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics suspending monthly employment reports as of Oct. 1, the state is now without its key measure of job growth and unemployment for September — data essential to understanding economic health and planning for the months ahead.
The federal government ground to a halt on Oct. 1 after a late-night budget standoff in Congress. Senate Democrats insisted on preserving Affordable Care Act subsidies and Medicaid funding as part of the spending bill, while Republicans refused to tie health care protections to the funding measure. The clash left both chambers deadlocked and the clock ran out, triggering a nationwide shutdown that shuttered agencies and froze critical federal data — from employment reports to economic forecasts — in a matter of hours.
Shutdown Clouds Economic Picture
State officials confirmed that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has paused all federal, state, and local employment updates until the government reopens. Without those reports, Oregon and other states are missing a central piece of the economic dashboard used by businesses, analysts, and public agencies to make investment and hiring decisions.
The employment rate one provides a baseline for everything from local workforce planning to statewide revenue forecasts. And without them, it’s difficult to gauge whether we’re trending toward growth, stagnation, or slowdown.
Wage Trends show a loss of 3,800 jobs in Oregon
In the absence of monthly data, the Oregon Employment Department released its most recent Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) — a slower-moving but reliable measure that shows employment and wage trends through June.
Health Care Up, Manufacturing Down
The QCEW data shows that Oregon’s covered employment totaled 2,004,700 in the second quarter of 2025, down 3,800 jobs from the same quarter in 2024. The private sector lost 11,100 jobs during the last year, driven largely by a 3.9% decline in manufacturing, which shed 7,400 positions.
In contrast, health care and social assistance added 14,100 jobs, a 4.7% increase that continues to buoy Oregon’s service economy.
Rural Counties Depend Heavily on Federal Jobs
Oregon averaged 29,000 federal government jobs in the first half of 2025 — about 1.5% of all jobs statewide. But that share climbs dramatically in rural areas such as Sherman County, where more than 15% of all jobs are federal, followed by Grant (9%), Harney (8%), and Lake (8%) counties.
Federal positions also pay significantly more, averaging $98,500 annually, roughly 38% above the statewide average wage.
Nationally, some 300,000 federal civilian workers had already been set to leave their jobs this year due to a downsizing campaign initiated earlier this year. The Justice Department said in a court filing more than 4,200 federal employees had gotten layoff notices at seven agencies, including more than 1,400 at the Treasury Department and at least 1,100 at the Department of Health and Human Services, according to a story today in Reuters.
Waiting for the Numbers
The Employment Department plans to release the Oregon Job Vacancy Survey on Oct. 23 and its next statewide economic update on Nov. 19 — assuming federal services have resumed by then.
Until then, both private and public decision-makers will have to plan in the dark.
