Gorge Wheat Harvest 2022 Forecast
Overall it’s looking like one of the better crops we’ve had in a while due to above average precipitation. - Jacob Powell, of Oregon State University Extension Service
By Cole Goodwin
Wheat harvests in Oregon and Washington are forecasted to surpass 2021 yields by as much as 85 percent due to heavy rainfall and cooler spring and summer temperatures.
According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Oregon winter wheat production is expected to total 44.6 million bushels, up 41 percent from last year. Growers in Oregon are expected to harvest a total of 720,000 acres of wheat. And yield is predicted to be 62 bushels per acre, up 23 bushel from last year.
A close up look of wheat in Wasco County. Photo was taken May 2022. Photo Credit: Jacob Powell
Washington winter wheat production is also up.
NASS forecasts Washington will produce 131 million bushels of wheat, which is up 85 percent from 2021. Washington growers are predicted to harvest 1.80 million acres of wheat, with yields of 73 bushels per acre, which is a 31 bushel increase from 2021.
“Overall it’s looking like one of the better crops we’ve had in a while due to above average precipitation” said Jacob Powell, of Oregon State University Extension Service. “Wheat crops need good rainfall to grow and we’ve had six inches of rain this year.”
“The USDA has said that 67% of our yield is looking good to excellent which is fairly remarkable,” said Powell.
A graph from NASS showing wheat harvest yields over time.
Cooler temperatures also mean later harvest dates.
“If this weather pattern holds then we’re looking at a late harvest,” said Powell. “Most growers have historically harvested around 4th of July, but this year it looks like we might not be harvesting until August. So it will be one of the later harvests on record but also one of the higher yields on record as well.”
The price of wheat is also up.
“The average price in June of 2022 has been $11.29 per bushel and last year it was down at $8.33 a bushel,” said Powell.
A close up of wheat in Wasco County taken this May. Photo Credit: Jacob Powell
However despite forecasted high yields and high wheat prices, growers still may not be able to make up for what they lost last year during the drought.
“Last year was one of the lowest yields on record,” said Powell. “The USDA is still offering emergency loans to growers who suffered due to the drought.”
“A rise in fuel costs are also impacting growers,” said Powell “The price of herbicides and fungicides have also doubled in the last year. So it’s good that wheat prices are up but it isn’t necessarily fully covering the cost to produce in some cases.”
A wheat field in Wasco County. Photo Credit: Jacob Powell
And while cool wet weather means high yields, it also means increased disease pressure and stripe rust fungus.
“Stripe rust tends to take over the flag leaf, which is the very top leaf of the plant. The flag leaf acts as the solar panel for the wheat, so when stripe rust takes over those leaves it stunts wheat yields because there isn’t as high enough energy transfer into the plant for grain development,” said Powell.
“In 2020 a lot of growers planted Magic and a lot of it got stripe rust,” said Powell “There were whole fields that were yellow and orange from the fungus. But since that big episode in 2020 more growers are growing less magic and are growing other varieties.”
“In Wasco County a lot of growers are growing a variety called Rosalyn which is more tolerant of stripe rust,” said Powell. “So that bodes well for this year’s harvest.”
