Thoughts from the Tractor Seat: Tariffs, Debt, and the Price of Your Groceries
Thoughts from the Tractor seat by Ken Polehn
Ken Polehn
The Dalles, Ore., Dec. 1, 2025 — If you’ve walked through a supermarket lately, you’ve probably noticed produce prices that feel too high. Meanwhile, farmers like me are getting paid prices that are too low — often far below the cost of growing the food in the first place.
So where’s all the money going? And will tariffs or political promises fix it? Let’s take a look from the tractor seat.
THE FARMER’S SHARE IS SHRINKING
According to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, farmers receive only 30–40% of the retail dollar for fruits and vegetables — and often less for specialty crops. The rest goes to packing, trucking, storage, distribution, retail markup, and shrink (food the store throws out).
(Source: USDA ERS, Food Dollar Series; CRS Report R48213)
Meanwhile, our costs — labor, fuel, fertilizer, insurance, compliance — have surged. Overall farm production expenses are near record highs.
(Source: USDA ERS Farm Income Forecast 2024)
The result? Retail prices go up, farm income stays flat, and family farms get squeezed out.
THE IMPORT PROBLEM
In 2024, the U.S. imported 14 million tons of fruit and berries valued at over $20 billion.
(Source: IndexBox 2024 U.S. Fruit & Berry Market Overview)
Imports are cheaper because they’re produced with lower labor costs, fewer regulations, and government subsidies from exporting countries. Those products displace U.S. fruit — fresh, frozen, dried, canned, you name it.
So even if your grocery store price goes up, that doesn’t mean the grower got paid any better.
SO WHAT ABOUT TARIFFS?
Tariffs sound like a simple fix: tax foreign fruit so consumers buy American fruit.
But tariffs come with trade-offs.
1. Tariffs Raise Consumer Prices
When the U.S. puts a tariff on imported fruit, the cost usually gets passed on to the customer. Economists estimate that 92% of tariff costs are paid by U.S. consumers and companies, not foreign suppliers.
(Source: Federal Reserve Board, “Tariff Passthrough Study,” 2023)
So yes — tariffs protect some growers.
But they also raise grocery bills.
2. Trading Partners Retaliate
We’ve lived this: when the U.S. raises tariffs, other countries slap tariffs on American cherries, apples, and pears.
After the 2018 trade war, U.S. cherry exports to China fell more than 70% in value.
(Source: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service, GATS data)
Retaliation hurts specialty crops immediately.
3. Tariffs Don’t Fix the Labor or Regulation Gap
Even with tariffs, foreign producers still have:
Lower labor costs
Lower land costs
Fewer environmental rules
Cheaper compliance
Cheaper shipping (yes — shipping a container from Chile to L.A. can cost less than trucking from Oregon to California)
Tariffs don’t level that playing field.
THE NATIONAL DEBT IS MAKING THIS WORSE
This part is harder for people to see, but it affects everything.
The U.S. national debt has passed $34 trillion. When debt rises:
1. Interest rates rise
That means:
More expensive operating loans
Higher mortgage and land costs
Higher equipment loan payments
Higher cost of capital for packinghouses, processors, and. Weaker distributors.
Every link in the supply chain pays more.
Those higher costs become higher grocery prices.
2. Weak dollar makes imports cheaper
A weakening dollar (caused in part by debt pressure) makes foreign fruit more competitive.
That puts even more downward pressure on American farm-gate prices.
3. Government safety nets become less reliable
Programs like crop insurance, disaster assistance, farm loans, rural development grants, and research funding face bigger fiscal strain.
Farms become more exposed to risk.
Debt eats the future — and agriculture is the first to feel it.
SO ARE TARIFFS THE SOLUTION?
Tariffs can slow the bleeding for some sectors.
They can protect a few crops temporarily.
They can send a message in a trade dispute.
But tariffs alone will not fix the price spread between:
What farmers get
What consumers pay
What Big Grocery pockets
And what foreign suppliers deliver
Tariffs don’t fix labor costs.
They don’t fix consolidation.
They don’t fix regulations.
They don’t fix the national debt.
They don’t fix the loss of domestic processing capacity.
They are a tool — not a solution.
THE REAL FIX: AMERICAN CONSUMERS
Here’s the power every urban household holds:
1. Look at the label
Choose U.S.-grown fruit first:
USA
Oregon
Washington
California
Michigan
Pacific Northwest
Local
2. Ask your grocer why U.S. fruit isn’t on the shelf
Grocery chains listen when customers speak up.
3. Understand that cheap imports aren’t really cheap
They cost communities, workers, water, and food security.
4. Support policies that shrink the producer–consumer price gap
Not policies that push family-scale growers out.
If you want American farms to survive, the simplest action is still the most powerful:
Buy American agriculture first.
Your choices are policy.
About the author.
I was born in 1961 into a second-generation farm family in The Dalles. I grew up on a tractor seat, moving irrigation pipe with my sisters before school, and spent my summers picking cherries alongside the children of migrant families who returned year after year. My wife, children, and parents have all worked the same land. I’ve served as county Farm Bureau president, sat on the county fair board, and continue to support 4-H and FFA. I’ve seen firsthand what happens when farmers are squeezed out—not just of business, but of the conversation.
Support Local News!
Available for Everyone; Funded by Readers.
