Soft White Wheat - Lack of Rain Brings some Pain

Dumping soft white wheat at Mid Columbia Producers in The Dalles. Not as many kernels this year as harvest, so far, is coming up light.

By Tom Peterson

The soft white wheat harvest is serving up a little heartbreak this July as farmers are cutting into their fall crops to find wheat heads yielding around 50 percent of a normal year.

A lack of rain and brutal record-breaking heat has led to smaller yields thus far, according to farmers in Gilliam and Wasco counties. 

A sampling of soft white wheat from Underhill Farms

Truck Driver Jeff Davis with Martin Underhill Farms said it is taking about twice as long for combines to fill a truck with wheat on the acreage their currently cutting near 15-Mile Creek near the Deschutes River. 

Davis said he could usually get loaded in 45 minutes on an average year, and it was taking about twice that to fill the truck he drove with some 650 bushels.

Where farmers were getting 70 bushels, they are coming up with 35. In Gilliam County, the same is occurring with yields coming in at half - where land was producing 40-bushel wheat, it has dropped into the high teens. 

“Drought is definitely having an impact,” said Amanda Hooey, Chief Executive Officer of the Oregon Wheat Growers League, on Tuesday, July 13. “We’re not the only ones suffering from the drought. On Monday,  the US Dept. of Agriculture dropped estimated wheat production in all of Oregon down another 5 percent,” she said. “It’s down 28 percent overall.”

Truck Driver Jeff Davis with Martin Underhill Farms brought in this load of soft white wheat on Tuesday, July 13 to Mid Columbia Producers in The Dalles.

In real numbers, Oregon’s soft white wheat estimate was 44.6 million bushels in 2020. This year that number has now dropped to 33 million. The USDA dropped the numbers on Monday, July 12.

In the combined region of Idaho, Washington and Oregon, estimates are down 26 percent on total production.

Market Price

Soft white wheat had record sales last year and carryover stocks are down. When that is combined with a small harvest, the market price may be poised to jump. 

Wheat was trading for $7.45 a bushel on Tuesday afternoon, July 12. However prices have been well above 8 dollars in recent months and some speculate a shortage could eclipse that number. 

“Its the tightest stock we have seen since 2007 and 2008,” Hooey said. “Those were some record years on prices.”

Some wheat sold for more than $10 a bushel during that period.

Hooey said other countries, however, could still affect the market, softening the price. She noted producers such as Australia, Canada and countries surrounding the Black Sea such as Ukraine, could bring big yields. 

Tough to be Optimistic

“It’s hard to be optimistic in a year like this,” Hooey said. “It’s had such an impact on producers. They have put in a lot of hard work and effort over the past year and decades. It’s really sad.”