Winter Weather Forecast for Mid-Columbia and North Central Oregon Regions
El Niño coming by to say “Hello.”
By Joshua Albert
The Dalles, Ore., Dec. 8, 2023 – After a single day of snow and a long week of rain followed by a single sunny day, locals to the Columbia River Gorge are scratching their heads, wondering what is in store for this upcoming winter.
While weather can be fickle, some weather experts have tried to paint a picture of what is in store for the Mid-Columbia region this winter.
Wet and Warm Start to Winter
As of now, precipitation levels hover between 110% and 130% of normal, with temperatures averaging 1 to 3°F above the seasonal average.
It’s El Niño
The current El Niño* weather pattern is expected to persist through April-June 2024, suggesting the potential for colder and snowier period in late December through mid-January followed by a milder second half to winter with below-normal precipitation and snowfall.
*El Niño occurs when above-average sea-surface temperatures cause the Pacific jet stream to move south and spread further east. During winter, that leads to wetter conditions in the Southern U.S. and drier conditions in the North. It also has a significant impact on marine life off the Pacific coast as there are fewer phytoplankton for fish to eat. Microscopic plant-like organisms called phytoplankton are the base of the marine food web, and they play a key role in removing carbon dioxide from the air. Photo Credit: NOAA.gov.
Warmer Weather and Drought Continues
When looking ahead, there is a 50-60% chance of above-average temperatures over the next three months, with an equal likelihood of either above or below-average precipitation.
April and May are projected to be warmer than normal with near-normal rainfall.
Drought conditions are expected to persist, particularly in central and northeastern Oregon, with moderate drought affecting the northern tips of Wasco and Sherman Counties while the rest of the counties are classified under severe drought.
How does this year compare to previous years?
In the North Central Region of Oregon that encompasses Hood River, Wasco, Sherman, Gilliam, Morrow, and Umatilla counties temperatures are predicted to be 0.6°F below average, accompanied by precipitation at 82% of normal.
December is forecasted to be colder at 3.5°F below average, with precipitation at 88% of the average. January expects temperatures 0.5°F above average and precipitation at 87% of normal. February forecasts temperatures 1.1°F above average with precipitation at 66% of normal.
